Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
